Robotic applications often involve working in environments that are uncertain, dynamic, and partially observable. Recently, diffusion models have been proposed for learning trajectory prediction models trained from expert demonstrations, which can be used for planning in robot tasks. Such models have demonstrated a strong ability to overcome challenges such as multi-modal action distributions, highdimensional output spaces, and training instability. It is crucial to quantify the uncertainty of these dynamics models when using them for planning. In this paper, we quantify the uncertainty of diffusion dynamics models using Conformal Prediction (CP).

Given a visual scene, humans have strong intuitions about how a scene can evolve over time under given actions. The intuition, often termed visual intuitive physics, is a critical ability that allows us to make effective plans to manipulate the scene to achieve desired outcomes without relying on extensive trial and error. In this paper, we present a framework capable of learning 3D-grounded visual intuitive physics models from videos of complex scenes. Our method is composed of a conditional Neural Radiance Field (NeRF)-style visual frontend and a 3D point-based dynamics prediction backend, using which we can impose strong relational and structural inductive bias to capture the structure of the underlying environment. Unlike existing intuitive point-based dynamics works that rely on the supervision of dense point trajectory from simulators, we relax the requirements and only assume access to multi-view RGB images and (imperfect) instance masks acquired using color prior.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to train agents from pre-collected datasets. However, this comes with the added challenge of estimating the value of behaviors not covered in the dataset. Model-based methods offer a potential solution by training an approximate dynamics model, which then allows collection of additional synthetic data via rollouts in this model. The prevailing theory treats this approach as online RL in an approximate dynamics model, and any remaining performance gap is therefore understood as being due to dynamics model errors. In this paper, we analyze this assumption and investigate how popular algorithms perform as the learned dynamics model is improved. In contrast to both intuition and theory, if the learned dynamics model is replaced by the true error-free dynamics, existing model-based methods completely fail. This reveals a key oversight: The theoretical foundations assume sampling of full horizon rollouts in the learned dynamics model; however, in practice, the number of model-rollout steps is aggressively reduced to prevent accumulating errors. We show that this truncation of rollouts results in a set of edge-of-reach states at which we are effectively bootstrapping from the void. This triggers pathological value overestimation and complete performance collapse.